Mortgage Rate Forecast 2026: What Experts Are Predicting

Mortgage rates dominated headlines from 2022 through 2024 as the Fed hiked rates aggressively to fight inflation. Now, heading into 2026, most forecasters see rates moderating — but not returning to the historic lows of 2020–2021. Here's what the data and expert consensus suggests.

Where Rates Stand Today

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged around 6.5–7% through much of 2025. While well below the 8% peak of late 2023, rates remain elevated by historic standards. The monthly payment on a $400,000 mortgage at 6.75% is roughly $2,594 — more than double what it was at 3% in 2021.

What the Major Forecasters Are Saying

• Fannie Mae: Projects 30-year rates averaging 6.2–6.5% in 2026
• Freddie Mac: Similar outlook — gradual decline as Fed eases
• Mortgage Bankers Association: Forecasts 6.1% by end of 2026
• NAR: Expects rates to settle in the 6–6.5% range
• Goldman Sachs: More cautious — sees rates staying near 6.5% if inflation remains sticky

The Key Variables to Watch

• Federal Reserve rate decisions — Fed funds rate directly influences short-term rates
• 10-year Treasury yield — the benchmark mortgage rates track most closely
• PCE inflation data — persistent inflation delays Fed cuts
• Labor market strength — strong jobs = fewer Fed cuts
• Geopolitical events — uncertainty drives investors to Treasuries, pushing yields down

What This Means for Buyers and Refinancers

If forecasts prove accurate and rates drift toward 6–6.5% in 2026, we'll see a modest uptick in buying activity and a meaningful refinance wave among the millions who bought at 7–8% in 2023–2024. Every 0.5% drop in rates saves roughly $100–$120/month on a $400,000 mortgage.